Variability in Intrahousehold Transmission of Ebola Virus, and Estimation of the Household Secondary Attack Rate.

Transmission between family members accounts for most Ebola virus transmission, but little is known about determinants of intrahousehold spread. From detailed exposure histories, intrahousehold transmission chains were created for 94 households of Ebola survivors in Sierra Leone: 109 (co-)primary cases gave rise to 317 subsequent cases (0-100% of those exposed). Larger households were more likely to have subsequent cases, and the proportion of household members affected depended on individual and household-level factors. More transmissions occurred from older than from younger cases, and from those with more severe disease. The estimated household secondary attack rate was 18%.

Asymptomatic infection and unrecognised Ebola virus disease in Ebola-affected households in Sierra Leone: a cross-sectional study using a new non-invasive assay for antibodies to Ebola virus.

BACKGROUND: The frequency of asymptomatic infection with Ebola virus is unclear: previous estimates vary and there is no standard test. Asymptomatic infection with Ebola virus could contribute to population immunity, reducing spread. If people with asymptomatic infection are infectious it could explain re-emergences of Ebola virus disease (EVD) without known contact. METHODS: We validated a new oral fluid anti-glycoprotein IgG capture assay among survivors from Kerry Town Ebola Treatment Centre and controls from communities unaffected by EVD in Sierra Leone. We then assessed the seroprevalence of antibodies to Ebola virus in a cross-sectional study of household contacts of the survivors. All household members were interviewed. Two reactive tests were required for a positive result, with a third test to resolve any discrepancies. FINDINGS: The assay had a specificity of 100% (95% CI 98·9-100; 339 of 339 controls tested negative) and sensitivity of 95·9% (89·8-98·9; 93 of 97 PCR-confirmed survivors tested positive). Of household contacts not diagnosed with EVD, 47·6% (229 of 481) had high level exposure (direct contact with a corpse, body fluids, or a case with diarrhoea, vomiting, or bleeding). Among the contacts, 12·0% (95% CI 6·1-20·4; 11 of 92) with symptoms at the time other household members had EVD, and 2·6% (1·2-4·7; 10 of 388) with no symptoms tested positive. Among asymptomatic contacts, seropositivity was weakly correlated with exposure level. INTERPRETATION: This new highly specific and sensitive assay showed asymptomatic infection with Ebola virus was uncommon despite high exposure. The low prevalence suggests asymptomatic infection contributes little to herd immunity in Ebola, and even if infectious, would account for few transmissions. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust ERAES Programme, Save the Children.

Exposure-Specific and Age-Specific Attack Rates for Ebola Virus Disease in Ebola-Affected Households, Sierra Leone.

Using histories of household members of Ebola virus disease (EVD) survivors in Sierra Leone, we calculated risk of EVD by age and exposure level, adjusting for confounding and clustering, and estimated relative risks. Of 937 household members in 94 households, 448 (48%) had had EVD. Highly correlated with exposure, EVD risk ranged from 83% for touching a corpse to 8% for minimal contact and varied by age group: 43% for children <2 years of age; 30% for those 5-14 years of age; and >60% for adults >30 years of age. Compared with risk for persons 20-29 years of age, exposure-adjusted relative risks were lower for those 5-9 (0.70), 10-14 (0.64), and 15-19 (0.71) years of age but not for children <2 (0.92) or 2-4 (0.97) years of age. Lower risk for 5-19-year-olds, after adjustment for exposure, suggests decreased susceptibility in this group.

Effects of Mother's Illness and Breastfeeding on Risk of Ebola Virus Disease in a Cohort of Very Young Children.

BACKGROUND: Young children who contract Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) have a high case fatality rate, but their sources of infection and the role of breastfeeding are unclear. METHODS/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Household members of EVD survivors from the Kerry Town Ebola Treatment Centre in Sierra Leone were interviewed four to 10 months after discharge to establish exposure levels for all members of the household, whether or not they became ill, and including those who died. We analysed a cohort of children under three years to examine associations between maternal illness, survival and breastfeeding, and the child's outcome. Of 77 children aged zero to two years in the households we surveyed, 43% contracted EVD. 64 children and mothers could be linked: 25/40 (63%) of those whose mother had EVD developed EVD, compared to 2/24 (8%) whose mother did not have EVD, relative risk adjusted for age, sex and other exposures (aRR) 7·6, 95%CI 2·0-29·1. Among those with mothers with EVD, the risk of EVD in the child was higher if the mother died (aRR 1·5, 0·99-2·4), but there was no increased risk associated with breast-feeding (aRR 0·75, 0·46-1·2). Excluding those breastfed by infected mothers, half (11/22) of the children with direct contact with EVD cases with wet symptoms (diarrhoea, vomiting or haemorrhage) remained well. CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE: This is the largest study of mother-child pairs with EVD to date, and the first attempt at assessing excess risk from breastfeeding. For young children the key exposure associated with contracting EVD was mother's illness with EVD, with a higher risk if the mother died. Breast feeding did not confer any additional risk in this study but high risk from proximity to a sick mother supports WHO recommendations for separation. This study also found that many children did not become ill despite high exposures.